OVERVIEW AND PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN DEBT MARKET

Abstract

After a period of "extremely high volatility" observed in the first three months of 2025 and a slight correction, OFZ prices remained in a sideways range in April—May, and a price rally began at the end of May, which lasted throughout June 2025. The main reason for such a significant improvement in investor sentiment in the bond market was, first of all, data on inflation: in annual terms, it decreased for the second month in a row, reaching 9.88% in May and falling to 9.39% by June 30. This allowed the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate by 100 basis points to 20% at the June meeting, and statements by representatives of the regulator later gave market participants reason to assume a possible rate cut at the July meeting by 100-200 basis points. As a result, OFZ yields reached their local lows in the first half of the year, returning to the level of mid-May 2024. Overall, in the first half of 2025, there was high activity in both the primary and secondary markets of all bond segments. In this regard, the article will provide an overview of the dynamics of the Russian debt market and identify the prospects for its further development.