MODELING THE STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS

Abstract

The relevance of this study is determined by the need to comprehend the profound transformations occurring in the industrial sector under the influence of technological shifts, geopolitical constraints, and changing consumption patterns. Modern industrial systems face the challenge where traditional strategic planning methods based on trend extrapolation cease to function effectively under conditions of high volatility. The purpose of this work is to develop and substantiate a methodological approach to modeling structural dynamics that allows not only to record the fact of changes but also to manage them, taking into account financial constraints and target performance indicators. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the synthesis of economic-mathematical modeling methods and financial management tools for assessing structural shifts. The paper proposes an original classification of factors of structural dynamics, dividing them into endogenous (manageable) and exogenous (unmanageable), which improves the accuracy of forecasts. The empirical base consists of data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), financial statements of Russian public industrial companies for the period 2019-2024, as well as industry reviews. The main result of the study is the development of a simulation model of structural transformations, tested on the example of enterprises in the machine-building complex. The model makes it possible to assess the multiplier effect of resource redistribution between production stages. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using the proposed toolkit by financial managers and analysts to substantiate investment decisions and restructure business portfolios under conditions of uncertainty. The article examines in detail examples of successful adaptation of industrial systems to structural changes using the example of companies that diversified their production in the period 2022-2024.