STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE RUSSIAN CITIES: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS AND COMPOSITE ASSESSMENT

Abstract

This study evaluates the sustainable development governance of five large Russian cities: Kazan, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, and Novosibirsk. The primary objective is to identify structural imbalances in urban development using an original composite index. To ensure the objectivity of the evaluation, quantitative statistical data spanning a ten-year period (2014–2023) were analyzed. The proposed index comprises four core domains: socio-demographic, infrastructural, economic, and environmental. The weighting coefficients for each domain were calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), drawing upon the methodologies of leading Russian urban sustainability ratings: Expert RA, VEB.RF, and SGM. The comparative analysis reveals that each city encounters distinct challenges. Notably, Krasnodar emerged as the absolute leader due to substantial demographic and infrastructural growth; however, its local economy struggles to keep pace with such a massive population influx. Within the mid-tier group, Kazan surpassed Yekaterinburg by 2023, owing to a more resilient recovery from the crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Nizhny Novgorod and Novosibirsk rank among the underperformers: while the former experiences a severe demographic crisis despite maintaining solid investment activity, the latter demonstrates systemic stagnation in infrastructural renewal. The practical significance of the research is that municipal authorities can utilize its findings for targeted adjustments of urban socio-economic development strategies.