APPLICATION OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO STUDY THE CAREER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF THE COMPANY'S PERSONNEL

Abstract

The article considers the methodological aspects of using a scenario approach to analyze the company's personnel career management system. The paper proves the feasibility of using a cognitive approach and scenario analysis to study the personnel career management system; the results of developing a cognitive map reflecting the key factors that determine the process of making management decisions in personnel career management are presented. Using impulse modeling and a scenario approach, predictive scenarios for the development of the simulated personnel career management system are formed, which reflect its response to various management actions. The conclusions obtained in modeling possible scenarios for the development of the personnel career management system under the influence of management actions are presented, which allows using analytical tools to identify alternative career management trajectories and minimize risks when making management decisions. The proposed synthesis of methodological approaches allows not only to predict the dynamics of organizational processes, but also to develop adaptive mechanisms for improving the effectiveness of the company's HR policy through the selection of optimal management actions.